本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛前面附的市场短评写完后，因为工作的关系，没有继续写下去，但每天都在关注市场的发展。过去两年多以来我一直坚持这一轮经济周期已经见顶，但市场出乎意料地RESILIENT，后面附了更早一些时间写的市场短评，在自己的BLOG上发了，反映了自己当时的一些思考。BLOG 后来也没有坚持下去。
美国经济已经进入一轮衰退已经是不争的事实，经济危机一触即发。冰冻三尺非一日之寒，美国经济的结构性问题由来已久，次债危机只是打开了潘多拉盒子，当危机扩展到经济其他领域的时候，尤其是当消费市场开始疲软的时候（IT WILL），危机才会走向深化。美国政府早已经负债累累，一旦出现债务危机(IT WILL), 以美元为主的世界金融体系将彻底崩溃；再加上美国政府近几年穷兵黩武，到处树敌，一旦再出现一次大规模的恐怖袭击(IT PROBABLY WILL)，美国强国的地位将正式寿终正寝。世界正在寻求新的经济霸主，中国已经引起世界关注。但中国缺乏的是人！在世界人口最多的国度，能够真正具有国际水准的企业家有几个？！在金融界，真正懂得投资的恐怕一个巴掌也能数的过来（对不起，中国的那些基金经理们）！然而，中国在很多方面在补课，在崛起，在迎头赶上，希望在我们的有生之年能看到中国成为世界的霸主！对此，我持乐观态度。Until then, 世界经济将处于一个“无主”的状态。
Merill, Lehman, AIG, Morgan Stanley (possible, in talks), 这些如雷贯顶的名字，一夜之间竟成为历史！尽管我早已预感到会有几家银行成为次债危机的牺牲品，但当这些名字出现的时候，我仍然愕然！It proves the saying – Anything is possible!
美国政府的救市行动，就像给一个病入膏肓的人打一针强心剂，恐怕只够苟延残喘几个时辰而已，美国的DAYS ARE NUMBERED.
时间匆匆，只言片语，只是忙里偷闲，与大家分享一二。仁者见仁，智者见智。我相信，肯定有持不同意见者，那是正常。不当之处，敬请指正。
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Time to Brace for a Downturn
Almost simultaneously, we are hearing talks of hard landing and recession everywhere. All it took was two more batches of ugly numbers.
On Wednesday, August 23, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell to a seasonably adjusted rate of 6.33 million units in July, down 4.1 per cent from June and 11.2 per cent from July 2005. Housing inventories rose 3.2 per cent to 3.86 million homes for sale at the end of July, representing a 7.3-month supply of homes, which is up from the 6.8-month supply of homes in June and represents the worst level since 1993. Adding fuel to fire, the U.S. Commerce Department released numbers on Thursday August 24 showing that new-home sales tumbled 22 per cent in July from a year earlier and builders’ inventory rose to another record.
Clear signs that a U.S. housing market downturn is in full swing have unnerved the market. All of a sudden, it seems like everyone has wakened up to the fact that trouble may be coming our way. After all, it is not difficult to figure out that if the world’s number one economy crashes hard on landing, all of us on board (who is not?) will suffer more than a bruise. Saturday’s front page Report on Business reports in bold and large-sized letters that “No one in the U.S. is debating whether there is a housing bubble any more. Instead, the chatter has moved to how fast the market is falling”. National Bank Financial economics economists have raised the odds of a U.S. hard landing to 40 per cent from 25 per cent.
This week’s numbers confirmed my earlier belief that trouble is looming ahead (see my August 8 blog “Trouble Ahead”). Stock-heavy investors, it is time to brace for a downturn (if not recession).
Trouble Ahead
August 8, 2006
Pieces are falling into place for a market slowdown.
First of all, all recent signals from the housing market in the U.S. spell trouble for the biggest economy in the world. Among other things, new home sales in June dropped 3% to a seasonally adjusted annul sale of 1.131 units, first decline since February. The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, a gauge of homebuilders’ enthusiasm, fell to 39, its lowest level since December 1991.
At this side of the border, with the housing boom partly fueled by the unrelenting commodity rally, the market appears to have fared better than its counterpart in the south, so far. However, not surprisingly, signs of cooling are emerging on the horizon. Today's building permits report by Statistics Canada indicates that, while non-residential activities remain robust thanks to oil-laden Alberta, the residential market is slowing down, with the value of residential permits dropping by 5.5% in the second quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline.
While a slowdown is almost certainly in the cards, how it is going to shape up is bound to have some significant consequences to our investments. A soft landing, as predicted (or should I say wished) by most economists, will bid adieu in a hopefully painless fashion to our happy ride. However, anything other than an orderly correction could send shock waves across the economy. Do we smell recession?
As if economic fundamentals are not troublesome enough, geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh. Oil prices are going all over the map. Metals keep flying. We are seeing more and more triple-digit days (TSX and Dow) in either direction as the market has lost sense of direction. Investors’ nerves are getting thinner, and understandably so, as no one knows what they are going to wake up to the next morning.
Air is leaking from both the housing and the commodity bubbles, which have taken us on a nice bull run for a good five years. When they burst, no one is to blame. It is called cycles - ECON 101. And it is about time.
Investingwise, it is critical to protect portfolios from a market downturn. Cash is king. Out of favor, defensive stocks will shine again. Gold is poised to challenge new highs as the glory of green backs fades into history. Shorting the major U.S. indices and the U.S. dollar or purchasing put options are alternative return-enhancing strategies.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
美国经济已经进入一轮衰退已经是不争的事实，经济危机一触即发。冰冻三尺非一日之寒，美国经济的结构性问题由来已久，次债危机只是打开了潘多拉盒子，当危机扩展到经济其他领域的时候，尤其是当消费市场开始疲软的时候（IT WILL），危机才会走向深化。美国政府早已经负债累累，一旦出现债务危机(IT WILL), 以美元为主的世界金融体系将彻底崩溃；再加上美国政府近几年穷兵黩武，到处树敌，一旦再出现一次大规模的恐怖袭击(IT PROBABLY WILL)，美国强国的地位将正式寿终正寝。世界正在寻求新的经济霸主，中国已经引起世界关注。但中国缺乏的是人！在世界人口最多的国度，能够真正具有国际水准的企业家有几个？！在金融界，真正懂得投资的恐怕一个巴掌也能数的过来（对不起，中国的那些基金经理们）！然而，中国在很多方面在补课，在崛起，在迎头赶上，希望在我们的有生之年能看到中国成为世界的霸主！对此，我持乐观态度。Until then, 世界经济将处于一个“无主”的状态。
Merill, Lehman, AIG, Morgan Stanley (possible, in talks), 这些如雷贯顶的名字，一夜之间竟成为历史！尽管我早已预感到会有几家银行成为次债危机的牺牲品，但当这些名字出现的时候，我仍然愕然！It proves the saying – Anything is possible!
美国政府的救市行动，就像给一个病入膏肓的人打一针强心剂，恐怕只够苟延残喘几个时辰而已，美国的DAYS ARE NUMBERED.
时间匆匆，只言片语，只是忙里偷闲，与大家分享一二。仁者见仁，智者见智。我相信，肯定有持不同意见者，那是正常。不当之处，敬请指正。
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Time to Brace for a Downturn
Almost simultaneously, we are hearing talks of hard landing and recession everywhere. All it took was two more batches of ugly numbers.
On Wednesday, August 23, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell to a seasonably adjusted rate of 6.33 million units in July, down 4.1 per cent from June and 11.2 per cent from July 2005. Housing inventories rose 3.2 per cent to 3.86 million homes for sale at the end of July, representing a 7.3-month supply of homes, which is up from the 6.8-month supply of homes in June and represents the worst level since 1993. Adding fuel to fire, the U.S. Commerce Department released numbers on Thursday August 24 showing that new-home sales tumbled 22 per cent in July from a year earlier and builders’ inventory rose to another record.
Clear signs that a U.S. housing market downturn is in full swing have unnerved the market. All of a sudden, it seems like everyone has wakened up to the fact that trouble may be coming our way. After all, it is not difficult to figure out that if the world’s number one economy crashes hard on landing, all of us on board (who is not?) will suffer more than a bruise. Saturday’s front page Report on Business reports in bold and large-sized letters that “No one in the U.S. is debating whether there is a housing bubble any more. Instead, the chatter has moved to how fast the market is falling”. National Bank Financial economics economists have raised the odds of a U.S. hard landing to 40 per cent from 25 per cent.
This week’s numbers confirmed my earlier belief that trouble is looming ahead (see my August 8 blog “Trouble Ahead”). Stock-heavy investors, it is time to brace for a downturn (if not recession).
Trouble Ahead
August 8, 2006
Pieces are falling into place for a market slowdown.
First of all, all recent signals from the housing market in the U.S. spell trouble for the biggest economy in the world. Among other things, new home sales in June dropped 3% to a seasonally adjusted annul sale of 1.131 units, first decline since February. The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, a gauge of homebuilders’ enthusiasm, fell to 39, its lowest level since December 1991.
At this side of the border, with the housing boom partly fueled by the unrelenting commodity rally, the market appears to have fared better than its counterpart in the south, so far. However, not surprisingly, signs of cooling are emerging on the horizon. Today's building permits report by Statistics Canada indicates that, while non-residential activities remain robust thanks to oil-laden Alberta, the residential market is slowing down, with the value of residential permits dropping by 5.5% in the second quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline.
While a slowdown is almost certainly in the cards, how it is going to shape up is bound to have some significant consequences to our investments. A soft landing, as predicted (or should I say wished) by most economists, will bid adieu in a hopefully painless fashion to our happy ride. However, anything other than an orderly correction could send shock waves across the economy. Do we smell recession?
As if economic fundamentals are not troublesome enough, geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh. Oil prices are going all over the map. Metals keep flying. We are seeing more and more triple-digit days (TSX and Dow) in either direction as the market has lost sense of direction. Investors’ nerves are getting thinner, and understandably so, as no one knows what they are going to wake up to the next morning.
Air is leaking from both the housing and the commodity bubbles, which have taken us on a nice bull run for a good five years. When they burst, no one is to blame. It is called cycles - ECON 101. And it is about time.
Investingwise, it is critical to protect portfolios from a market downturn. Cash is king. Out of favor, defensive stocks will shine again. Gold is poised to challenge new highs as the glory of green backs fades into history. Shorting the major U.S. indices and the U.S. dollar or purchasing put options are alternative return-enhancing strategies.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net