本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Once again liquidity is at a premium, and as one of my colleagues has pointed out, prices on the (Reuters) screen are more of a guide than a dealing price. The USD is marginally softer against most of the majors this morning although activity has been muted as the market awaits the US employment data. Currently the market is looking for declines of roughly 200K jobs. Although the USD could come under early pressure, as of late negative news has tended to support the USD as global growth concerns have been impacting asset prices and encouraging deleveraging and unwinding of carry. The big question is whether or not the degree of unwinding is sufficient enough that the market is comfortable with its position, if so, the USD may not rally. As for growth, the IMF released a fairly bearish outlook warning that the developed nations will in contract in unison and that it revised its global growth outlook for 2009 lower to 2.2%, from a 3.0% expectation just last month.. The Fund did also note that Governments have taken actions that will soften the impact but that more efforts were needed. Certainly Central Banks with maybe the ECB being the notable exception seem to be on board with it. With yesterday’s BoE cut, UK base rates are now below the ECB target rates for first time since the introduction of the euro, but the market will probably ultimately reward the BoE for its actions. I wonder if the ECB wishes it could have a do over after seeing the actions of other Central Banks and the much weaker than expected industrial production numbers out of Germany. Credit conditions are still improving with three month Libor falling 9bps to 2.29% although the overnight rate has moved marginally higher. Even with this, conditions remain tight with the ECB reporting that lending to business tightened in November and that credit standards have tightened dramatically since July.

Turning to North America in addition to1the employment data, the market also gets pending home sales, wholesale inventories and consumer credit. North of the border the market got the employment data for October. Just ahead of the data release USDCAD traded roughly 80 bps higher to 1.20 on expectations that the data would see a “correction” after last month’s much larger than expected data and come in with more than the 10K job losses expected. Against expectations, Stats Canada reported 9.5K new jobs with fulltime jobs rising 47.5K and part time jobs declining by 38K, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.2%. According to BMO Economics “the stability in Canada’s latest jobs survey is impressive. If there was any lingering doubt that Canada’s economy is faring better than the U.S.---so far---this two-month performance should quash it, especially given the likely sea of red coming our way at 8:30 from the U.S. payrolls data. Watch for a crossover in the unemployment rates, with the U.S. moving above Canada for the first time since the early 1980s.” As for the currency, USDCAD is still trading in fairly whippy ranges. What is surprising is that even with a better than expected jobs number, improving equity markets and oil prices, the C$ is little changed. Off the daily charts, USDCAD still looks like it want to still test higher levels although with momentum indicators still moving lower, significant topside gains may be limited, although the pair looks like it could retest the 1.2450/2500 area. To the downside a break back below 1.1725 could trigger further losses. Bigger picture the 1.1250 area should provide longer term support. The short term intraday charts suggest that the first move is still lower.

Expected range: 1.1820 -1.2025.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net