本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛USDCAD (1.1517) If you haven’t yet read the news (because you’ve just returned from the moon), Barak Obama has been elected President, with the Democrats making significant gains in both Houses. • Asian markets continue to do well, but we are seeing some unwind of yesterday’s large gains in Europe, while in the currency market the risk aversion trade is doing somewhat better than yesterday but is currently under pressure as we move into the North American open. After a few consecutive sessions accompanied by some very negative US economic data, capped off by more bad news via another large monthly decline in factory orders yesterday, one might think that the USD was finally beginning to feel the pain from all of this economic doom and gloom. This is not entirely true, not yet anyway, as the significant USD weakness we saw play out yesterday is not necessarily justified solely by negative fundamentals (though they contribute), as prospects are no better abroad than ‘at home’. However fundamentals should eventually move back to the fore as a market driver, but if yesterday’s trading is any sign, they are still being usurped by the ebb and flow from the forces of risk and fear, or perhaps more positively put, risk and optimism. With Libor at various terms continuing to fall yesterday, global equity indices considerably higher, commodities posting large gains (both the CRB complex and oil gained significantly), we saw carry do very well, EM currencies strongly outperform and USDCAD move another 400 points to the downside from intraday top to bottom. It’s interesting to note that global equity market gains have been of a more sustainable nature of late, helping to underpin the fall in general volatility and risk aversion that had helped rapidly push the USD higher. This Friday’s employment data in the US and Canada may provide a good opportunity to see whether fundamentals retake center stage, though it may still be too early. Indeed, looking at the elevated level of G-7 and EM currency volatility, we may not see “regular” fundamentals based data becoming a significant driver again until volatility falls by around 40%-50% from current levels. • There is no data for Canada today as we wait for building permits and Ivey PMI tomorrow, followed by employment data on Friday. USDCAD has reached the 1.1500 Fibonacci retracement level we mentioned yesterday in very short order, but has had some difficulty pushing firmly below it. The trend, and likelihood that risk appetite remains relatively healthy in the immediate term as European central banks cut interest rates tomorrow, favours further downside in USDCAD, although we remain of the view that USDCAD will eventually turn higher once investors shift their focus back onto deteriorating global economic fundamentals.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net