本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛USDCAD (1.1660) The USD and JPY are weaker against the rest of the G10 as equities strengthen in Europe and S&P futures point to a strong open in the United States. Risk appetite looks healthier despite some disappointing economic data, suggesting investors remain focused on falling interest rates and the improvement in credit conditions. Three-month USD Libor fell 15bps today to 2.71% – below the levels seem immediately prior to the Lehman collapse (although the Libor-OIS spread remains a wide 211bps). Notably, AUD is up more than 2% despite a larger than expected 75bp rate cut from the RBA, suggesting the market is more focused on the potential growth-boosting implications than the deteriorating economics of the carry trade. CAD is up 1.2% against the USD, pushing USDCAD below 1.1700 and on its way to a test of support at 1.1500. As we noted last week, the current focus on policymaker activism and the improvement in credit conditions can be expected to sustain the rebound in carry and commodity currencies in the near term. However, decoupling has been exposed as a fantasy, as the United States pulls many others down in its wake. The deleveraging process is not over yet, and the ongoing deterioration in the real economy has negative implications for asset values that we think will dog the carry trade/cyclical currencies over the next several months. • Yesterday’s US data underscored the challenges facing both the US and global economies. The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey revealed a significant increase in the share of respondents tightening lending standards for commercial & industrial loans (to a record 85% versus 60% in the previous survey) and commercial real estate loans. As for yesterday’s ISM manufacturing report for October, the 4.6-point decline to 38.9 brought the headline index to its lowest level since 1982. Moreover, the export orders index collapsed 11 points to 41.0 – the first time it has fallen below 50 (data goes back to 1988). The latter development is certainly worrisome for the United States considering how much exports have accounted for GDP growth in recent quarters, but it is also underscores the slowdown in global growth (the ISM did find that more than half of its respondents had been affected by recent financial turmoil, which could indicate that the plunge in exports was partly related to tighter trade financing conditions). Finally, US vehicle sales drove off a cliff in October, falling to a 25-year low of 10.6mn units (annualized). Today’s focus will be on the US election. Obviously, the big question is whether Senator Obama’s lead will last, or Senator McCain will stage a Truman-esque comeback. However, it will also be interesting to see whether the Democrats can manage a filibuster-proof super-majority in the Senate更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net