本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛As if the liquidity and volatility hasn’t been enough to test one’s patience of late today could be worse. On top of the liquidity constraints the market has had to deal with, month end flows and requirements could exaggerate the moves. Just to put thing into a bit of perspective, over the month of October oil prices are down about 40%, gold is down 21% North American bourses are down between 15 and 19% while the European bourses are also down between 15 and 23%. Even worse, for the North American investor, the losses are between 21 and 30% when taking into affect the USD’s appreciation. Looking at the currencies over the course of October, against the USD the Aussie is down 23%, the Loonie down 18%, the Pound is down 12% and the Euro is off by 10% with the only winner being the Yen which has gained just over 14%. Given that this month has resulted in large relative changes in market value of global equity markets coupled with the currency affect the market will be looking at the potential month end requirement. The earlier consensus is that there will be broad based USD buying requirements against the Euro, Pound, Aussie, Yen and Loonie. In this environment, given that the data hasn’t counted for all that much of late, today it will likely matter even less. That said, with the recent volatility and the month end potential, the same could be said for the technicals. Central Banks still remain a focal point with t he BoJ cutting rates 20bps to 0.3% (slightly less than expected), downgrading its growth forecast while the ECB’s Weber warned that “if the economy cools, then rates have to come down rapidly”. With that in mind, Euro area inflation decelerated sharply in October to 3.2% yoy, recording the slowest pace since January. In addition German retail sales fell 2.3% in September, the largest monthly drop in over a year.

Turning to North America, the US has a fairly full calendar with the market getting the Q3 ECI, September personal income & spending as well as the October Chicago PMI and University of Michigan confidence data. North of the border, the market gets the real GDP for August. As noted above, given all that has been going on, the data takes on secondary importance with the focus still likely to be on equities. Looking at USDCAD, The CAD value of the Dow is down roughly with the value of the S&P down even more and we all know what USDCAD has done. Normally the C$ drop in the US exchanges would leave domestic participants over hedged USD however, the drop in the USD value of the TSX would make domestics under hedged, which would play into the above noted month end demand for USD. For what its worth, off the charts, USDCAD dailies have seen a retracement over the past few trading sessions with the charts now suggesting that we are going to see USDCAD turn higher again. Stochastics have moved into oversold with the MACD looking to cross over. Off the shorter term charts, the signals are also there for another move higher.

Expected range: 1.2025 – 1.2450更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net