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Well...

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛I agree with you that US dollar has been very strong against almost all of the major currencies. And it is overvalued.

When we talk about export/import, we have to take into account the capital account. US has been running big trade deficit for a long time. If a country or a person spends more than they make, eventually they will go bankrupt. Argentina is an example. The reason that it hasn’t happened to US yet is because its capital account offsets its current account that includes trade.

US’s financial market has been attracting tons of money. As long as more people want to invest in US, US dollar is in high demand and it will maintain strong position.

US currency adopts floating system, which means the rule of demand and supply applies, though the government can intervene by changing money supply. It is a perplexing issue to economists and policy makers. There are lots of discussions of devaluating dollar due to pressure from trade deficit. But it may not achieve what they want; instead it might depress the economy.

US is the biggest trade partner to Canada, which accounts for 87% of Canadian export. If a country has that large export/import percentage to a single partner (87%/76%), you can understand how significant effect the currency issue will have on Canadian economy.

From 1991 to 2000, Canadian wealth has been taken away 20% and keeps sliding.

It is a complex issue. I don’t have a full handle on that. If I were able to predict the exchange rate, I would make a fortune.

Weak currency reflects weak economy. The wealth of a nation depends on its competitiveness. I just read a working paper by Roger Martin, Dean of business school of University of Toronto. It is well written and co-authored by Michael Porter from Harvard. If you are interested, you can take a look.

If Canada doesn’t change its thinking and policies, I would not hold my money all in Canadian dollar, would you? Whether Canada should adopt US dollar or not is still to be determined, we will see.

I hope you don’t mind I exchange my thoughts with you. :-))更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / 加元真的”一泻千里”吗?
    很有一些人跟着几个没有头脑的政治家, 总嚷嚷着要用美元, 却不知现在的美元正如两年前的NASDAQ, 是泡膜经济的产物. 在下手头正好有些资料, 大家可以看看加元是否真的不值钱了:

    英镑从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌 10.48%
    加元从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌12.78%
    意大利里拉从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌21.18%
    澳大利亚元从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌30.07%
    瑞士法郎从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌31.21%
    法国法郎从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌34.07%
    日元从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌34.12%
    德国马克从04/1995到12/2001对美元跌37.05%

    以上都是用04/1995和12/2001的平均值. 可见加元表现远比除英镑外的所有西方主要货币都优秀, 所以不能简单地说加元是WEAK CURRENCY.

    美国是世界上最大的贸易逆差国, 当然喜欢高估美元币值. 但MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER的大牌经济学家前不久已经警告美元应跌15%-20%才合理, 信不信在你. 加拿大使用美元弊大于利是显而易见的. 除非美国在利率上给加拿大的发言权, 否则等于是把自己的经济命脉送给别人.
    • 将来会”一泻千里”的只可能是美元,另外加元和人民币对我们而言都是本国货币,不会有直接影响
    • Well...
      • It is the most popular opnion in the world.
      • 呵呵, 越来越深了.
        等我4月15日报完税再和你切磋切磋.

        By the way, your said "As long as more people want to invest in US, US dollar is in high demand and it will maintain strong position." This assumption was true during dotcom booming, but the golden time is gone already. Nobody can gaurantee people want to invest in US all the time.
        ,
    • 加元不跌不正常,看工人,公务员,教师等等经常罢工要长工资,加元下跌使得这些人的收人相对减少,用以抵消他们的罢工影响,当然了也会使所有人的收入减少,降低劳工的成本,使得所有人都有饭吃,也是一件好事。
    • 加元兑美元正在形成底部的可能性越来越大。美元兑欧罗、英镑、瑞士法朗,澳元等的气势已转弱。
    • Niu Ren!
      • 你也是 thunderbird 的爱好者?
        • Yeah. But that one is too expensive for me.
          • same here. that's the combination of art and spirit, so classical.
    • 什么意思? 要是美金不值钱了,是不是该及时换成加元.望各位朋友指点!
    • 长期看,cad vs usd有升值空间
    • 中线看,CAD和AUD都突破盘整空间,因此以前的底成为现在的顶,对USD偏强。CAD今年可能空间为1。44-1。53附近。